Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern · Analysis updated 16:46 UTC
Wallern / Marienkirchen vs Ried Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Wallern / Marienkirchen and 3.50 for Ried, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Ried the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ried win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 3.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wallern / Marienkirchen home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ried away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ried to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 19% / 15% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Wallern / Marienkirchen and 3.50 for Ried, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–35.8%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–45.1%
- 2–45.1%
- 1–25.0%
Recent form
Wallern / Marienkirchen
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gurten · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wals-Grünau · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ried · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Seekirchen · 0-3 (L)
Ried
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Wolfsberger AC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · Wallern / Marienkirchen 1-5 Ried (Cup)
- 2024-01-12T15:00:00.000Z · Wallern / Marienkirchen 0-1 Ried (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ried win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.