Wallern / Marienkirchen vs TSV St. Johann Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Wallern / Marienkirchen and 0.86 for TSV St. Johann, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Wallern / Marienkirchen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Wallern / Marienkirchen win

73.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wallern / Marienkirchen home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TSV St. Johann away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wallern / Marienkirchen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Wallern / Marienkirchen and 0.86 for TSV St. Johann, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Wallern / Marienkirchen win73%

Draw16%

TSV St. Johann win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

2–010.9%
2–19.3%
3–09.1%
1–08.7%
3–17.8%

Recent form

Wallern / Marienkirchen

2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leonfelden · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bad Schallerbach · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UFC Hallein · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gurten · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried II · 5-0 (W)

TSV St. Johann

2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wallern / Marienkirchen	13	9	1	3	21	28
2	LASK Juniors	13	8	3	2	28	27
3	Wals-Grünau	13	7	5	1	11	26
4	Gurten	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Kuchl	13	6	3	4	1	21
6	Bad Schallerbach	13	5	4	4	7	19
7	Grödig	13	6	1	6	0	19
8	SK Vorwarts Steyr	13	5	3	5	1	18
9	Leonfelden	13	4	5	4	-2	17
10	TSV St. Johann	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Ried II	13	4	2	7	-14	14
12	Seekirchen	13	3	4	6	-7	13
13	UFC Hallein	13	3	3	7	-13	12
14	Wohnbau Dietach	13	3	3	7	-17	12
15	Pinzgau Saalfelden	13	1	2	10	-18	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wallern / Marienkirchen win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.