Walsall vs Oldham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Walsall and 0.70 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives Walsall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Walsall win

59.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.61 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Walsall home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Walsall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 25% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Walsall and 0.70 for Oldham, a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Match result (1X2)

Walsall win59%

Draw25%

Oldham win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.0%
2–012.8%
1–111.2%
0–09.9%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Walsall

2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 2-0 (W)

Oldham

2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds United U21 · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Accrington ST · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Salford City · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Walsall win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.