Bescot Stadium · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Walsall vs Port Vale Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Walsall and 0.99 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Walsall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Walsall home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Port Vale away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Walsall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 29% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Walsall and 0.99 for Port Vale, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 56.9% vs market 45.3%, edge +11.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +11.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.4% | 39.6% | 2.53 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 29.4% | 3.40 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.5% | 70.6% | 1.42 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.0% | 69.0% | 1.45 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.5% | 60.4% | 1.66 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 31.3% | 31.0% | 3.23 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 43.1% | 2.32 | -11.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Walsall
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 2-0 (W)
Port Vale
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mansfield Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.