Bescot Stadium · Referee R. Massey-Ellis · Analysis updated 09:54 UTC
Walsall vs Stevenage Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Walsall and 1.14 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Stevenage the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Walsall home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stevenage away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 56.8% vs market 47.8%, edge +9.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 47.8% | 56.8% | 1.76 | +9.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 61.1% | 61.5% | 1.63 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.2% | 70.6% | 1.42 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.80 | 31.7% | 32.0% | 3.13 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 38.6% | 38.6% | 2.59 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.6% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.1% | 1.47 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.2% | 43.2% | 2.31 | -9.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Walsall
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Oldham · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 1-1 (D)
Stevenage
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leyton Orient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-02T19:00:00.000Z · Walsall 2-1 Stevenage (EFL Trophy)
- 2023-03-11T15:00:00.000Z · Walsall 1-3 Stevenage (League Two)
- 2022-08-13T14:00:00.000Z · Walsall 1-1 Stevenage (League Two)
- 2022-01-08T15:00:00.000Z · Walsall 1-3 Stevenage (League Two)
- 2021-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · Walsall 1-0 Stevenage (League Two)
- 2021-02-20T15:00:00.000Z · Walsall 1-1 Stevenage (League Two)
- 2020-12-02T19:00:00.000Z · Walsall 1-1 Stevenage (League Two)
- 2019-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Walsall 0-0 Stevenage (League Two)
- 2014-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Walsall 2-3 Stevenage (League One)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.