· Analysis updated 17:44 UTC
Walter Ferretti vs Rancho Santana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Walter Ferretti and 0.93 for Rancho Santana, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Walter Ferretti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Walter Ferretti win
70.9% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Walter Ferretti home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rancho Santana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Walter Ferretti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Walter Ferretti and 0.93 for Rancho Santana, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Walter Ferretti
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs H&H Export · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T01:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAN Managua · 0-1 (L)
Rancho Santana
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Jalapa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Matagalpa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Matagalpa | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -22 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Walter Ferretti win, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.