· Analysis updated 20:33 UTC
Waltham Abbey vs Croydon Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.79 expected goals for Waltham Abbey and 1.56 for Croydon Athletic, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Waltham Abbey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Waltham Abbey win
63.2% probability
Expected goals
2.79 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waltham Abbey home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Croydon Athletic away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waltham Abbey to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 17% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.79 goals for Waltham Abbey and 1.56 for Croydon Athletic, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–26.1%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Waltham Abbey
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hastings United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Athletic · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakenham Town · 2-0 (W)
Croydon Athletic
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Waltham Abbey · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raynes Park Vale · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevenoaks Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Waltham Abbey win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.