· Analysis updated 22:51 UTC
Waltham Abbey vs Dagenham & Redbridge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Waltham Abbey and 1.26 for Dagenham & Redbridge, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Waltham Abbey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Waltham Abbey win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waltham Abbey home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dagenham & Redbridge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waltham Abbey to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Waltham Abbey and 1.26 for Dagenham & Redbridge, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Waltham Abbey
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hastings United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Athletic · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakenham Town · 2-0 (W)
Dagenham & Redbridge
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chesham United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farnborough · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemel Hempstead Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hampton & Richmond · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Waltham Abbey win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.