· Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Ware vs Berkhamsted Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ware and 1.76 for Berkhamsted, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Berkhamsted the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.0% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ware home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Berkhamsted away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Berkhamsted to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Ware and 1.76 for Berkhamsted, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.4%
Recent form
Ware
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aveley · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesham United · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Sudbury · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fakenham Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakenham Town · 3-3 (D)
Berkhamsted
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cray Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chichester City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.