Warrenpoint Town vs Moyola Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Warrenpoint Town and 1.18 for Moyola Park, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Warrenpoint Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Warrenpoint Town win

48.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Warrenpoint Town home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Moyola Park away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Warrenpoint Town win48%

Draw24%

Moyola Park win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–09.8%
2–19.5%
2–08.1%
0–17.0%

Recent form

Warrenpoint Town

2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-2 (L)

Moyola Park

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughgall · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Glenavon FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 6-2 Moyola Park (Championship)
2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 2-1 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 2-3 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 0-1 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
2023-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 3-0 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	8	2	3	7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	7	3	2	16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	6	3	4	2	21
5	Queen's University	13	6	2	5	8	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	4	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	-5	17
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	-11	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	2	4	7	-11	10
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Warrenpoint Town win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.