· Analysis updated 12:23 UTC
Warrington Town vs Shildon AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Warrington Town and 1.60 for Shildon AFC, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Warrington Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Warrington Town win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Warrington Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warrington Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Warrington Town and 1.60 for Shildon AFC, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Warrington Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Liverpool · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs United of Manchester · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shildon AFC · 4-0 (W)
Shildon AFC
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Witton Albion · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Witton Albion · 3-3 (D)
- 2025-08-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Birtley Town · 5-2 (W)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birtley Town · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Warrington Town win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.