Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground · Analysis updated 14:02 UTC
Warriors vs Kowloon City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Warriors and 1.10 for Kowloon City, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Warriors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Warriors win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Warriors home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kowloon City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Warriors
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shatin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern District · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shatin · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Kowloon City · 3-0 (W)
Kowloon City
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Wofoo Tai Po · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern District · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shatin · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Eastern · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T10:00:00.000Z · Warriors 0-0 Kowloon City (Premier League)
- 2026-02-01T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 4-1 Kowloon City (Premier League)
- 2025-12-20T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 3-0 Kowloon City (FA Cup)
- 2025-05-11T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 2-1 Kowloon City (Premier League)
- 2025-02-08T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 3-2 Kowloon City (Premier League)
- 2024-12-15T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 4-1 Kowloon City (Sapling Cup)
- 2024-11-09T10:00:00.000Z · Warriors 3-1 Kowloon City (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Eastern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Southern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Shatin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Warriors win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.