Warta Gorzów vs Carina Gubin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Warta Gorzów and 3.50 for Carina Gubin, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Carina Gubin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Carina Gubin win

83.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 3.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Warta Gorzów home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carina Gubin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carina Gubin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 7% / 10% / 83% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Warta Gorzów and 3.50 for Carina Gubin, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Warta Gorzów win7%

Draw10%

Carina Gubin win83%

Double chance 1X

17%

Double chance 12

90%

Double chance X2

93%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

0–37.9%
1–37.9%
0–46.9%
1–46.9%
0–26.8%

Recent form

Warta Gorzów

2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-1 (D)

Carina Gubin

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	13	9	1	3	9	28
2	Sparta Katowice	13	8	3	2	13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	7	4	2	7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	6	6	1	9	24
5	Barycz Sułów	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	6	2	5	4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	5	4	4	4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	13	5	3	5	2	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	13	5	2	6	3	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	4	5	4	1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	4	3	6	3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	13	4	3	6	-3	15
13	Kluczbork	12	5	0	7	-6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	3	5	5	-8	14
15	Rakow II	12	3	3	6	-6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	3	3	7	-11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	3	3	7	-12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	3	1	9	-12	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Carina Gubin win, at 83.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.