· Analysis updated 00:59 UTC
Warta Gorzów vs Górnik Polkowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Warta Gorzów and 1.93 for Górnik Polkowice, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Warta Gorzów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Warta Gorzów home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Górnik Polkowice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Warta Gorzów
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczbork · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rakow II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 1-1 (D)
Górnik Polkowice
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 0-0 Górnik Polkowice (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2026-07-08T15:00:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 1-0 Górnik Polkowice (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 1-1 Górnik Polkowice (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2026-02-10T16:30:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 2-2 Górnik Polkowice (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 2-2 Górnik Polkowice (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 0-1 Górnik Polkowice (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 0-3 Górnik Polkowice (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 1-1 Górnik Polkowice (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · Warta Gorzów 0-0 Górnik Polkowice (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.