· Analysis updated 04:24 UTC
Warta Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Warta Gorzów and 1.23 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Karkonosze Jelenia Góra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Warta Gorzów home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karkonosze Jelenia Góra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Warta Gorzów and 1.23 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Warta Gorzów
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczbork · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rakow II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 1-1 (D)
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.