· Referee M. Szczerbowicz · Analysis updated 18:14 UTC
Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.20 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives Warta Poznań the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Warta Poznań home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
ŁKS Łódź away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warta Poznań to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Warta Poznań and 1.20 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Warta Poznań
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chrobry Głogów · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-2 (L)
ŁKS Łódź
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 11 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 14 | Pogoń Siedlce | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.