Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Warta Sieradz and 1.50 for Jagiellonia II, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Jagiellonia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Warta Sieradz home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jagiellonia II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jagiellonia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Warta Sieradz and 1.50 for Jagiellonia II, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Warta Sieradz win32%

Draw25%

Jagiellonia II win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–19.6%
1–29.0%
1–08.0%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Warta Sieradz

2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelikan Łowicz · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigry Suwałki · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · 1-1 (D)

Jagiellonia II

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Troszyn · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź II · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Swit	14	8	2	4	8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	7	3	4	4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	6	4	4	4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	6	4	4	4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	6	4	4	2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	6	3	5	1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Widzew II	13	4	3	6	0	15
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	4	2	8	-10	14
17	Troszyn	14	2	5	7	-15	11
18	Łomża	13	0	3	10	-18	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.