· Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Warta Sieradz and 2.50 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Warta Sieradz home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 25% / 19% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Warta Sieradz and 2.50 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.7%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Warta Sieradz
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Zambrów · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Elbląg · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Swit · 1-2 (L)
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigry Suwałki · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Zambrów · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Pelikan Łowicz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Swit | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Olimpia Zambrów | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Warta Sieradz | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | ŁKS Łódź II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 13 | Widzew II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Mławianka Mława | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Łomża | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.