Audi Field · Referee Calin Radosav, USA · Analysis updated 05:37 UTC
Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Washington Spirit W and 0.97 for Bay FC W, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Washington Spirit W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Washington Spirit W win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Washington Spirit W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bay FC W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.45 | 64.2% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 16.5% | 17.9% | 5.59 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 38.1% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +1.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.00 | 45.5% | 46.5% | 2.15 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 78.1% | 78.8% | 1.27 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 60.5% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.4% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.65 | 56.6% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 54.5% | 53.5% | 1.87 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.09 | 83.8% | 82.2% | 1.22 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.95 | 23.0% | 21.3% | 4.69 | -1.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.60 | 35.8% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Washington Spirit W
- 2026-10-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dash W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-0 (W)
Bay FC W
- 2026-10-25T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Angel City W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Thorns W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pride W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 1-0 Bay FC W (NWSL Women)
- 2026-04-05T21:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 2-0 Bay FC W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 3-2 Bay FC W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-03-29T00:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 2-0 Bay FC W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-11-10T17:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 2-1 Bay FC W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-07-07T02:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 3-0 Bay FC W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-03-23T23:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 2-1 Bay FC W (NWSL Women)
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 29 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 58 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 52 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 47 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC W | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 29 | 11 | 3 | 15 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 29 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 29 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -52 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Washington Spirit W win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.