Audi Field · Referee Joshua Encarnacion, USA · Analysis updated 16:14 UTC
Washington Spirit W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Washington Spirit W and 0.98 for North Carolina Courage W, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Washington Spirit W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Washington Spirit W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Washington Spirit W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Washington Spirit W and 0.98 for North Carolina Courage W, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Washington Spirit W
- 2026-09-26T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston Legacy W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Thorns W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 1-0 (W)
North Carolina Courage W
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T22:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 3-4 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women)
- 2026-07-11T22:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 2-0 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 1-1 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-06-08T20:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 3-1 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-11-02T23:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 1-0 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-06-29T23:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 0-1 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-10-15T21:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 0-1 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-07-22T23:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 0-6 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women - Challenge Cup)
- 2023-06-14T23:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 1-2 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women - Challenge Cup)
- 2023-04-15T23:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 2-1 North Carolina Courage W (NWSL Women)
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 27 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 55 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Utah Royals W | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 46 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Angel City W | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | North Carolina Courage W | 27 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 42 |
| 9 | Seattle Reign FC W | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 38 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -10 | 29 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | -16 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 27 | 5 | 2 | 20 | -48 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.