Audi Field · Referee John Griggs, USA · Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Washington Spirit W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Washington Spirit W and 1.00 for San Diego Wave W, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Washington Spirit W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Washington Spirit W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Diego Wave W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Washington Spirit W
- 2026-09-26T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston Legacy W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Thorns W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 1-0 (W)
San Diego Wave W
- 2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pride W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T22:30:00.000Z · H vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 0-1 San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)
- 2026-05-16T02:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 1-2 San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 2-1 San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-06-23T02:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 0-0 San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 1-1 San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-06-15T23:30:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 1-1 San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-07-09T02:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 2-2 San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-05-06T17:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 3-1 San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)
- 2022-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 4-3 San Diego Wave (NWSL Women)
- 2022-07-03T21:00:00.000Z · Washington Spirit W 1-2 San Diego Wave (NWSL Women)
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 27 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 55 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Utah Royals W | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 46 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Angel City W | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | North Carolina Courage W | 27 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 42 |
| 9 | Seattle Reign FC W | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 38 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -10 | 29 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | -16 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 27 | 5 | 2 | 20 | -48 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.