Waterhouse Mini Stadium · Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
Waterhouse vs Dunbeholden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for Waterhouse and 0.43 for Dunbeholden, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Waterhouse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Waterhouse win
84.2% probability
Expected goals
2.64 – 0.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dunbeholden away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waterhouse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 12% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.64 goals for Waterhouse and 0.43 for Dunbeholden, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 33%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–016.1%
- 3–014.2%
- 1–012.2%
- 4–09.3%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Waterhouse
Dunbeholden
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Tivoli Gardens · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Molynes United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Montego Bay United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnett Gardens · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Waterhouse win, at 84.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.