Drewsland Stadium · Referee D. Parchment · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Waterhouse vs Humble Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.52 expected goals for Waterhouse and 0.43 for Humble Lions, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives Waterhouse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 92%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 92% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Waterhouse win
91.8% probability
Expected goals
3.52 – 0.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Humble Lions away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waterhouse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 92%, against 92% / 6% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.52 goals for Waterhouse and 0.43 for Humble Lions, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 34%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
8%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–013.9%
- 4–012.3%
- 2–011.9%
- 5–08.6%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Waterhouse
Humble Lions
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Treasure Beach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Portmore United · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T22:05:00.000Z · H vs Waterhouse · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Tivoli Gardens · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-05-04T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Waterhouse win, at 91.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 92% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.