Waterhouse Mini Stadium · Analysis updated 07:32 UTC
Waterhouse vs Spanish Town Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Waterhouse and 0.88 for Spanish Town Police, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Waterhouse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Waterhouse win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waterhouse home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spanish Town Police away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waterhouse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Waterhouse and 0.88 for Spanish Town Police, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Waterhouse
- 2026-10-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunbeholden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tru-Juice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Portmore United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:05:00.000Z · A vs Chapelton · 6-0 (W)
Spanish Town Police
- 2026-05-06T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Arnett Gardens · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapelton · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-04-23T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Portmore United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing United | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Tru-Juice | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 5 | Tivoli Gardens | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Chapelton | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 9 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Waterhouse win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.