Waterhouse Mini Stadium · Analysis updated 20:17 UTC
Waterhouse vs Treasure Beach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Waterhouse and 0.73 for Treasure Beach, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Waterhouse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Waterhouse win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Treasure Beach away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waterhouse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Waterhouse and 0.73 for Treasure Beach, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Waterhouse
Treasure Beach
- 2026-05-06T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Molynes United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Montego Bay United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Tivoli Gardens · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-04-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Dunbeholden · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-24T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Waterhouse · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-28T01:05:00.000Z · Waterhouse 2-0 Treasure Beach (Premier League)
- 2026-04-24T00:00:00.000Z · Waterhouse 1-2 Treasure Beach (Premier League)
- 2026-02-02T00:00:00.000Z · Waterhouse 1-0 Treasure Beach (Premier League)
- 2025-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · Waterhouse 0-0 Treasure Beach (Premier League)
- 2024-03-20T20:30:00.000Z · Waterhouse 4-2 Treasure Beach (Premier League)
- 2023-12-19T00:30:00.000Z · Waterhouse 4-1 Treasure Beach (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Waterhouse win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.