Petone Memorial Park Field · Analysis updated 16:14 UTC
Waterside Karori vs Wellington Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Waterside Karori vs Wellington Olympic in the Chatham Cup: no fixture-specific data has reached us for this match yet, so the figures below are a competition-average baseline with standard home advantage — not a rated model prediction on these two teams. They are excluded from our featured picks, accumulators and value selections, and will be replaced automatically once team and market data arrives.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
No fixture-specific data was available. These numbers are a competition-average prior with standard home advantage — not a model opinion on these two teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waterside Karori home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waterside Karori to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Waterside Karori and 1.18 for Wellington Olympic, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Waterside Karori
- 2025-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Wellington Phoenix II · 0-7 (L)
- 2025-08-23T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Miramar · 1-8 (L)
- 2025-08-09T02:30:00.000Z · H vs North Wellington · 6-0 (W)
- 2025-08-03T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Napier City Rovers · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-07-19T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Western Suburbs · 0-6 (L)
Wellington Olympic
Head-to-head
- 2025-06-28T02:30:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 1-9 Wellington Olympic (National League - Central)
- 2025-06-14T02:00:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 0-3 Wellington Olympic (Chatham Cup)
- 2025-04-12T03:45:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 0-5 Wellington Olympic (National League - Central)
- 2024-06-29T02:30:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 0-5 Wellington Olympic (National League - Central)
- 2024-04-13T03:45:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 1-4 Wellington Olympic (National League - Central)
- 2023-06-24T03:45:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 2-2 Wellington Olympic (National League - Central)
- 2023-04-01T01:30:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 1-2 Wellington Olympic (National League - Central)
- 2022-08-06T00:00:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 0-2 Wellington Olympic (National League - Central)
- 2022-04-30T00:00:00.000Z · Waterside Karori 1-1 Wellington Olympic (National League - Central)
Chatham Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 2 | Fencibles United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Napier City Rovers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Auckland City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Miramar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Hibiscus Coast | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Melville United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Cambridge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Island Bay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | South Auckland Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Takapuna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Petone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Northern AFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Dunedin City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.