Karori Park 2 · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Waterside Karori vs Wellington Phoenix II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Waterside Karori and 3.51 for Wellington Phoenix II, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives Wellington Phoenix II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wellington Phoenix II win
76.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 3.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waterside Karori home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wellington Phoenix II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 11% / 12% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Waterside Karori and 3.51 for Wellington Phoenix II, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 73%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.4%
- 1–46.5%
- 1–26.3%
- 2–35.3%
- 0–35.2%
Recent form
Waterside Karori
- 2025-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Wellington Phoenix II · 0-7 (L)
- 2025-08-23T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Miramar · 1-8 (L)
- 2025-08-09T02:30:00.000Z · H vs North Wellington · 6-0 (W)
- 2025-08-03T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Napier City Rovers · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-07-19T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Western Suburbs · 0-6 (L)
Wellington Phoenix II
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Olympic | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 45 |
| 2 | Miramar | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Western Suburbs | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 34 |
| 4 | Wellington Phoenix II | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 29 |
| 5 | Napier City Rovers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 |
| 6 | Petone | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | Waterside Karori | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -41 | 16 |
| 8 | Upper Hutt City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -30 | 14 |
| 9 | Island Bay United | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -34 | 13 |
| 10 | North Wellington | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -40 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wellington Phoenix II win, at 76.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.