Vicarage Road · Analysis updated 05:58 UTC
Watford vs Norwich Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Watford and 1.20 for Norwich, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Watford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Watford win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.3%
Why the model likes this
Watford home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Norwich away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Watford to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Watford and 1.20 for Norwich, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Watford
- 2026-08-16T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Southampton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crawley Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barnet · 2-2 (D)
Norwich
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Milton Keynes Dons · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Watford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | West Ham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Burnley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.