Vicarage Road · Referee J. Hunter · Analysis updated 07:41 UTC
Watford W vs Sunderland W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Watford W and 2.20 for Sunderland W, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Sunderland W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sunderland W win
69.3% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Watford W home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.8%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
Watford W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolverhampton W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest W · 2-2 (D)
Sunderland W
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle United W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-03-31T13:00:00.000Z · Watford W 0-3 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2023-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · Watford W 1-2 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2022-03-27T11:30:00.000Z · Watford W 1-2 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2021-11-14T15:30:00.000Z · Watford W 1-1 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2020-01-26T13:00:00.000Z · Watford W 0-2 Sunderland W (FA Women's Cup)
Women's Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town W | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest W | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Bristol City W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Southampton W | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Leicester City FC W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Sheffield United W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Watford W | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Burnley W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sunderland W win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.