· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Wathba vs Foutoua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Wathba and 0.68 for Foutoua, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Wathba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wathba win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wathba home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Foutoua away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wathba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Wathba and 0.68 for Foutoua, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Wathba
- 2026-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Istiqlol · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Nejmeh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hottin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordoi Bishkek · 1-1 (D)
Foutoua
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Shaykhun SC · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wathba · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaish · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Karama · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karama | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Shorta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Wahda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Jaish | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Qamishli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Nawaeir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Hottin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Wathba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Taliya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Tishreen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Horriya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Foutoua | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wathba win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.