Weiden vs Fortuna Regensburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Weiden and 2.28 for Fortuna Regensburg, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Fortuna Regensburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fortuna Regensburg win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 2.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Weiden home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Regensburg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Regensburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 28% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Weiden and 2.28 for Fortuna Regensburg, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Weiden win28%

Draw20%

Fortuna Regensburg win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.5%
1–17.5%
2–26.9%
1–36.5%
2–16.1%

Recent form

Weiden

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-2 (L)

Fortuna Regensburg

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	16	14	1	1	29	43
2	Würzburger FV	16	9	4	3	13	31
3	Bayern Hof	16	8	5	3	11	29
4	Eintracht Bamberg	15	8	4	3	13	28
5	Kornburg	15	7	6	2	14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	16	7	5	4	10	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	6	5	5	6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	16	6	4	6	8	22
10	Stadeln	16	5	6	5	-7	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	6	1	9	-5	19
12	Großbardorf	16	6	1	9	-7	19
13	Weiden	16	4	5	7	-8	17
14	Ammerthal	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	DJK Bamberg	16	3	5	8	-14	14
16	Nordlingen	16	3	5	8	-16	14
17	Ingolstadt II	16	3	4	9	-11	13
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	1	3	12	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fortuna Regensburg win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.