Weiden vs Gebenbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Weiden and 2.28 for Gebenbach, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Gebenbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gebenbach win

65.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 2.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Weiden home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gebenbach away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gebenbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 19% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Weiden and 2.28 for Gebenbach, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Weiden win16%

Draw19%

Gebenbach win66%

Double chance 1X

35%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–29.8%
0–29.5%
1–18.6%
0–18.4%
1–37.4%

Recent form

Weiden

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-2 (L)

Gebenbach

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiden · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Hof · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kornburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs ASV Neumarkt · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	14	12	1	1	23	37
2	Würzburger FV	14	8	3	3	9	27
3	Gebenbach	14	8	2	4	6	26
4	Eintracht Bamberg	14	7	4	3	11	25
5	Kornburg	14	6	6	2	12	24
6	Bayern Hof	14	6	5	3	8	23
7	Jahn Regensburg II	14	6	5	3	6	23
8	Fortuna Regensburg	14	6	3	5	9	21
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	14	6	3	5	6	21
10	Stadeln	14	5	5	4	-3	20
11	Neudrossenfeld	14	6	1	7	-2	19
12	Ammerthal	14	4	3	7	-9	15
13	Ingolstadt II	14	3	4	7	-8	13
14	Weiden	14	3	4	7	-9	13
15	Großbardorf	14	4	1	9	-10	13
16	DJK Bamberg	14	2	5	7	-15	11
17	Nordlingen	14	2	4	8	-17	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gebenbach win, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.