KVK Wellen Sportcomplex · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Wellen vs Berchem Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Wellen and 1.33 for Berchem Sport, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Wellen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wellen win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wellen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Berchem Sport away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wellen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Wellen and 1.33 for Berchem Sport, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Wellen
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liège · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nijlen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hades · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilrijk · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotselaar · 1-0 (W)
Berchem Sport
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tongeren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heist · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Berg en Dal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Rotselaar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Hades | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | De Kempen | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Wilrijk | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Royal Antwerp II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Diegem Sport | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Racing Mechelen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Eendracht Termien | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Wellen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Rotselaar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Rupel Boom | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Nijlen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Bocholt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Tongeren | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Sint-Truiden II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Cappellen | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wellen win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.