· Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Wellen vs De Kempen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Wellen and 1.87 for De Kempen, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives De Kempen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
De Kempen win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wellen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates De Kempen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Wellen and 1.87 for De Kempen, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–16.9%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Wellen
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liège · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nijlen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hades · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilrijk · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotselaar · 1-0 (W)
De Kempen
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hades · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nijlen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Diegem Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rupel Boom · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wilrijk · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | De Kempen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Racing Mechelen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Hades | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Royal Antwerp II | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Wilrijk | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Eendracht Termien | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Bocholt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Rupel Boom | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Sint-Truiden II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Wellen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Rotselaar | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Diegem Sport | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Nijlen | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 15 | Tongeren | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Cappellen | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is De Kempen win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.