· Analysis updated 02:12 UTC
Welling United vs Whitehawk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.86 expected goals for Welling United and 0.81 for Whitehawk, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Welling United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Welling United win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
2.86 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Welling United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Whitehawk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Welling United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.86 goals for Welling United and 0.81 for Whitehawk, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.5%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Welling United
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burgess Hill Town · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastbourne Borough · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Maldon & Tiptree · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whyteleafe · 1-0 (W)
Whitehawk
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St Albans City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ramsgate · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lewes · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Dartford | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Dulwich Hamlet | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 14 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 7 |
| 22 | Whitehawk | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Welling United win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.