· Analysis updated 06:25 UTC
Wellingborough Town vs Belper Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Wellingborough Town and 1.45 for Belper Town, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Wellingborough Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wellingborough Town win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wellingborough Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belper Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wellingborough Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Wellingborough Town and 1.45 for Belper Town, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Wellingborough Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nantwich Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kettering Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belper Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Anstey Nomads · 0-1 (L)
Belper Town
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellingborough Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bourne Town · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mickleover Sports · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Wellingborough Town 2-1 Belper Town (FA Trophy)
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Wellingborough Town 1-3 Belper Town (Non League Div One - Northern Midlands)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Wellingborough Town 0-1 Belper Town (Non League Div One - Northern Midlands)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wellingborough Town win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.