· Analysis updated 23:25 UTC
Wellingborough Town vs Kettering Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Wellingborough Town and 1.72 for Kettering Town, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Kettering Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wellingborough Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kettering Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Wellingborough Town and 1.72 for Kettering Town, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Wellingborough Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nantwich Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kettering Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belper Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Anstey Nomads · 0-1 (L)
Kettering Town
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Leiston · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Halesowen Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worcester City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Anstey Nomads · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.