Wakefield Park 2 · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Wellington Olympic vs Napier City Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Wellington Olympic and 1.06 for Napier City Rovers, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Wellington Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wellington Olympic win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wellington Olympic home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Napier City Rovers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wellington Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Wellington Olympic and 1.06 for Napier City Rovers, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
Wellington Olympic
- 2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern Suburbs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferrymead Bays · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland FC 2 · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-12-13T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland City · 1-1 (D)
Napier City Rovers
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cashmere Technical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibiscus Coast · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Petone · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Olympic | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 45 |
| 2 | Miramar | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Western Suburbs | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 34 |
| 4 | Wellington Phoenix II | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 29 |
| 5 | Napier City Rovers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 |
| 6 | Petone | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | Waterside Karori | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -41 | 16 |
| 8 | Upper Hutt City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -30 | 14 |
| 9 | Island Bay United | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -34 | 13 |
| 10 | North Wellington | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -40 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wellington Olympic win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.