· Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland FC 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Wellington Phoenix II and 1.25 for Auckland FC 2, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Wellington Phoenix II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Wellington Phoenix II win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wellington Phoenix II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Wellington Phoenix II and 1.25 for Auckland FC 2, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 48% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Wellington Phoenix II
Auckland FC 2
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - National table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Wellington Olympic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Napier City Rovers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Miramar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Wellington Phoenix II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Auckland United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Ferrymead Bays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Eastern Suburbs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Auckland City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Birkenhead United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wellington Phoenix II win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.