Fraser Park · Referee Sean Lau · Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
Wellington Phoenix II vs Island Bay United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.53 expected goals for Wellington Phoenix II and 0.96 for Island Bay United, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Wellington Phoenix II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wellington Phoenix II win
84.0% probability
Expected goals
3.53 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Island Bay United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wellington Phoenix II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.53 goals for Wellington Phoenix II and 0.96 for Island Bay United, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 59%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–07.2%
- 4–17.0%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Wellington Phoenix II
Island Bay United
- 2025-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Western Suburbs · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-08-23T03:30:00.000Z · H vs Wellington Olympic · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Petone · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-20T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Napier City Rovers · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Olympic | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 45 |
| 2 | Miramar | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Western Suburbs | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 34 |
| 4 | Wellington Phoenix II | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 29 |
| 5 | Napier City Rovers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 |
| 6 | Petone | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | Waterside Karori | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -41 | 16 |
| 8 | Upper Hutt City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -30 | 14 |
| 9 | Island Bay United | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -34 | 13 |
| 10 | North Wellington | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -40 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wellington Phoenix II win, at 84.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.