Sky Stadium · Referee L. Keevers · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.01 for Melbourne Victory, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Wellington Phoenix the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wellington Phoenix win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wellington Phoenix home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Melbourne Victory away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wellington Phoenix to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.01 for Melbourne Victory, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Wellington Phoenix
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast Mariners · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Victory · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-24T09:35:00.000Z · A vs Macarthur · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Sydney Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne City · 0-2 (L)
Melbourne Victory
- 2026-09-16T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Viettel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Western Sydney Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kingborough Lions · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Macarthur | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Sydney | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Melbourne City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wellington Phoenix win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.