The Athletic Ground · Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Wells City vs AFC Portchester Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Wells City and 1.60 for AFC Portchester, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives AFC Portchester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wells City home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Portchester away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Portchester to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Wells City and 1.60 for AFC Portchester, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Wells City
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2023-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Portchester · 1-2 (L)
- 2020-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bideford · 0-3 (L)
- 2020-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bovey Tracey · 2-0 (W)
- 2013-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brislington · 1-2 (L)
AFC Portchester
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Whitstable Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kingstonian · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.