· Analysis updated 05:58 UTC
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Kedus Giorgis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Welwalo Adigrat Uni and 0.82 for Kedus Giorgis, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives Welwalo Adigrat Uni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.9% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Welwalo Adigrat Uni home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Kedus Giorgis away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Welwalo Adigrat Uni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Welwalo Adigrat Uni and 0.82 for Kedus Giorgis, a combined 1.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Tripoli · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Tripoli · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Halaba Ketema · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hilal Port Sudan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Hilal Port Sudan · 1-2 (L)
Kedus Giorgis
- 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Adama Kenema · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopia Bunna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Negelle Arsi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fasil Ketema · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Mebrat Hayl | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Bunna | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.