· Analysis updated 19:14 UTC
Welwyn Garden City vs Mulbarton Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Welwyn Garden City and 1.41 for Mulbarton Wanderers, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Welwyn Garden City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Welwyn Garden City win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Welwyn Garden City home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mulbarton Wanderers away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Welwyn Garden City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Welwyn Garden City and 1.41 for Mulbarton Wanderers, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Welwyn Garden City
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastbourne Borough · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Walthamstow · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mulbarton Wanderers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-07-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Redbridge · 1-0 (W)
Mulbarton Wanderers
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloucester City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Woodford Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cornard United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Welwyn Garden City · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Witham Town · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Welwyn Garden City win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.