· Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Werder Bremen II vs VfB Oldenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Werder Bremen II and 2.30 for VfB Oldenburg, a combined total of 3.71. That distribution gives VfB Oldenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfB Oldenburg win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Werder Bremen II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Oldenburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Oldenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 23% / 20% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Werder Bremen II and 2.30 for VfB Oldenburg, a combined 3.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–26.5%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Werder Bremen II
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jeddeloh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 5-2 (W)
VfB Oldenburg
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jeddeloh · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bremer SV · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schöningen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 7-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 27 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 17 | St. Pauli II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfB Oldenburg win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.