· Analysis updated 05:02 UTC
Werder Bremen III vs Vatan Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Werder Bremen III and 2.56 for Vatan Sport, a combined total of 4.66. That distribution gives Vatan Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vatan Sport win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 2.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Werder Bremen III home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vatan Sport away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–35.5%
- 2–15.4%
Recent form
Werder Bremen III
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Bremen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oberneuland · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Brinkumer SV · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Leher TS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Grohn · 1-2 (L)
Vatan Sport
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brinkumer SV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Leher TS · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grohn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BTS Neustadt · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 3-5 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 1-3 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 3-2 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2025-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 4-4 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2024-11-17T13:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 3-4 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 3-1 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2022-11-12T13:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 0-5 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2022-04-10T12:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 0-2 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2021-11-06T12:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen III 4-1 Vatan Sport (Oberliga - Bremen)
Oberliga - Bremen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hemelingen | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 31 |
| 2 | Brinkumer SV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 30 |
| 3 | Blumenthaler SV | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 27 |
| 4 | OSC Bremerhaven | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 25 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Geestemünde | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | Vatan Sport | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Leher TS | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| 9 | Schwachhausen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 | Union Bremen | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | BTS Neustadt | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Eiche Horn | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Grohn | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 10 |
| 14 | Werder Bremen III | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 15 | Oberneuland | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -31 | 5 |
| 16 | Woltmershausen | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vatan Sport win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.