· Analysis updated 18:10 UTC
Werder Bremen U19 vs BAK 07 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Werder Bremen U19 and 1.18 for BAK 07 U19, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Werder Bremen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Werder Bremen U19 win
61.1% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Werder Bremen U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BAK 07 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Werder Bremen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Werder Bremen U19 and 1.18 for BAK 07 U19, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Werder Bremen U19
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Pauli U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs BAK 07 U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV U19 · 1-3 (L)
BAK 07 U19
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Werder Bremen U19 win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.