Weserstadion · Referee Bastian Dankert, Germany · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.37 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Werder Bremen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Werder Bremen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Augsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.00 (model 42.4% vs market 31.2%, edge +11.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.00 | 31.2% | 42.4% | 2.36 | +11.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 59.0% | 60.0% | 1.67 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.9% | 25.0% | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 40.0% | 40.0% | 2.50 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 35.1% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.5% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.5% | 75.0% | 1.33 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 68.8% | 57.6% | 1.74 | -11.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Werder Bremen
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-20T14:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 0-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-01-19T16:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 0-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-24T13:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 2-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-04-27T13:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 3-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2023-12-09T14:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 2-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2023-03-04T14:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 1-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2022-09-09T18:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 0-1 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2021-05-15T13:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 0-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2021-01-16T14:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 2-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.