Weserstadion Platz 11 · Referee Davina Lutz · Analysis updated 19:13 UTC
Werder Bremen W vs 1899 Hoffenheim W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Werder Bremen W and 0.50 for 1899 Hoffenheim W, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Werder Bremen W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Werder Bremen W win
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Werder Bremen W home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
1899 Hoffenheim W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.4%
- 2–016.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 3–09.4%
- 1–19.2%
Recent form
Werder Bremen W
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 2-3 (L)
1899 Hoffenheim W
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Koln W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Munich W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2025-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2025-03-10T17:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 1-0 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2024-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 0-1 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-10T11:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2023-09-30T12:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2023-05-19T17:15:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 0-4 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2022-12-11T15:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2022-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen W 0-1 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -21 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Werder Bremen W win, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.