The Hawthorns · Referee Gavin Ward · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
West Brom vs Birmingham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for West Brom and 1.01 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives West Brom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
West Brom home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Birmingham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.3%
- 0–112.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–17.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 57.8% vs market 46.7%, edge +11.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 57.8% | 1.73 | +11.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.5% | 62.9% | 1.59 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 37.0% | 37.1% | 2.70 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.9% | 29.9% | 3.34 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.0% | 67.0% | 1.49 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 33.1% | 33.0% | 3.03 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.5% | 70.1% | 1.43 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 42.2% | 2.37 | -11.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
West Brom
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 1-0 (W)
Birmingham
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-10T20:00:00.000Z · West Brom 0-0 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2025-11-26T20:00:00.000Z · West Brom 1-1 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · West Brom 1-4 Birmingham (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · West Brom 1-0 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2023-10-06T19:00:00.000Z · West Brom 1-3 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2023-02-10T20:00:00.000Z · West Brom 0-2 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2022-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · West Brom 2-3 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2022-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · West Brom 0-1 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2021-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · West Brom 1-0 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2021-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · West Brom 4-0 Birmingham (Friendlies Clubs)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.